{"id":544904,"recorded_at":"2026-10-27T20:16:56.553920Z","observed_at":"2026-10-27T20:16:56.553868Z","subject_kind":"endpoint","subject":"b1a27524-da7f-4b3d-850c-643e7a2251c7","kind":"mcp.tools","method":"probe.mcp/1","body":{"count":6,"tools":[{"description":"Use for \"is this contract mispriced\" and \"what is my edge\". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.","inputSchema":{"properties":{"marketPrice":{"description":"Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.","type":["number","string"]},"yourProbability":{"description":"Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.","type":["number","string"]}},"type":"object"},"name":"calculate_ev"},{"description":"Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for \"what is +150 as a probability\", \"convert 62% to American odds\", \"decimal to implied odds\".","inputSchema":{"properties":{"format":{"anyOf":[{"type":"string"},{"enum":["probability","american","decimal"],"type":"string"}],"description":"Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal."},"value":{"description":"The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format.","type":["number","string"]}},"type":"object"},"name":"convert_probability"},{"description":"Use for \"where is the arbitrage\" and \"Kalshi vs Polymarket price gaps\". Cross-venue gaps on the same NFL, NBA, NHL or MLB game: Kalshi against Polymarket US (the exchange US traders use, fees included), Polymarket international as a reference. Gap in pp, WATCH/ARB signal, cheaper venue, settlement_match; near misses when nothing clears. Free: the top 3 gaps in full; Pro returns the whole board.","inputSchema":{"properties":{"minGap":{"description":"Minimum gap in percentage points to include (default 3 = WATCH threshold).","type":["number","string"]}},"type":"object"},"name":"find_arbitrage"},{"description":"Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for \"how much should I stake\", \"what is my position size\", \"Kelly sizing for this trade\".","inputSchema":{"properties":{"bankroll":{"description":"Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure.","type":["number","string"]},"fraction":{"anyOf":[{"type":"string"},{"enum":["full","half","quarter","eighth"],"type":"string"}],"description":"Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth."},"marketPrice":{"description":"Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.","type":["number","string"]},"winProbability":{"description":"Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.","type":["number","string"]}},"required":["winProbability","marketPrice"],"type":"object"},"name":"kelly_size"},{"description":"Use for \"NHL predictions tonight\" and \"Stanley Cup odds\". Tonight's NHL games on Kalshi — moneyline, puck line, totals, period markets — as Market · Model · Fair, starting goalies checked first. market=goals: anytime and first-goal contracts; market=futures: Cup, conference and division markets on Kalshi and Polymarket (international book) vs a 10,000-season sim. Free.","inputSchema":{"properties":{"limit":{"description":"Max rows (default 16).","type":["number","string","null"]},"market":{"anyOf":[{"type":"string"},{"enum":["game","goals","futures"],"type":"string"}],"description":"game = tonight's board; goals = player goals; futures = Stanley Cup and season markets. One of: game · goals · futures."},"team":{"description":"Optional NHL club to filter — code (CAR, EDM, LAK), Kalshi code (LA, TB), nickname (\"Oilers\") or city (\"Edmonton\").","maxLength":40,"type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"name":"nhl_edge"},{"description":"Use for \"how accurate is your model\" and \"what's your track record\". Every graded PredictionMarketsPicks signal per engine (bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, weather, NHL) and the daily editorial call (POTD): W-L, net P/L, a 95% win-rate range and the current model era, and the NFL model's 2026 live record (published game positions and prop PLAYs) beside its backtest. WATCH calls are reported apart.","inputSchema":{"properties":{"lane":{"description":"Optional lane: bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, weather, nhl, potd, nfl — or an engine slug. Omit for every lane.","maxLength":40,"type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"name":"track_record"}]},"body_sha256":"d31f60fe163a98b254cb77e2da7574ce66a63237be377d56a51a2814390e4ff9","prev_id":null,"leaf":"0x8d572ec6b87ecad0ac317e0a42fdfa004efc0368f18bdfa1fff13862cf550423","leaf_text":"{\"body\":\"d31f60fe163a98b254cb77e2da7574ce66a63237be377d56a51a2814390e4ff9\",\"id\":544904,\"kind\":\"mcp.tools\",\"method\":\"probe.mcp/1\",\"observed_us\":1793132216553868,\"prev\":null,\"subject\":\"b1a27524-da7f-4b3d-850c-643e7a2251c7\",\"subject_kind\":\"endpoint\"}","day":{"day":"2026-10-27","leaves":273461,"root":"0xdd77e5e99da32c3f154180d63e3c3e6fe11e896a2c6896412ef6b5c4bcf7e795","chained":"0x23bb4dfd09f55c15ac3962f53578e02c6114d5bfd9bb451cf8794fb6e2817ef4","anchor_chain":"eip155:5042002","anchor_tx":"0xb2ebd83aafeb765a0ce66e76aefb133ed06606c98038fd56191e2bcd1dcb77b4","anchor_block":69414147},"proof":["0x8d56fd22c5c135167433fa326f988d4a2f239c63053275ecd7ae78fd07232288","0x700a762efdab3351ebc528f18ad452bdfdfadd9567628b70358015a44dfb7309","0x08ad7a28fb7302e09cf9476394a1738ef745109f2f0614d504135e971fb9f9dd","0x292b75d7a6ee34982548d0c7937c83a31fa6d25d21d5489961f8674485dd5594","0x9a8df9679d7b105913b8517058dba7cbbf6a7fb33d3591eb342a49bf0575a182","0x4fdc2c3e02285bc327d533beb02ac620f3151730f0f8b120cec4d078bbbe8484","0x2272d07e6e4619142feb202a4e385cc1d17395cf6d81837185f3d99af3cb48ca","0xbd6425b71e4a62790bf266a437b4859c47fd493c87c7abb866636360b65abdbd","0x888e6726e7260a01352b205efc41be9bde378dcd6a2fa8cef548c96d1e7f8a8b","0x2f7f7aad45aa10cfc35961f0b32e2d0c82d403432cac88a93d7ed4522d2607e0","0x9db4db43425eb15434c6ecabdea3edcc63d5347d28ff18fda137c7d140c12b36","0xe0e69ccf3eae9f1603c5f7e4a938a5ebe41708a9b4f6cb15a530b2e2aa69d8a0","0xea3d566bf95ca7a3a7f6de9c4f77180bd8c5ffd160486a27d870e8a2fb6d0b9e","0x06e3b43165f5b3c31d850bc32f20b2e25b844564c4e042c141b9748c26a5a600","0xb4f7223140c8a36cb87a63d77cf617086d9968dc4658f03e102571ebe06e9ed6","0xfecf3d4646dd4984a13dd715499e842c3fde63692336d97394c2bfd8e877ca5d","0xf30fddbf4811226c58e8f0daf36fddd79fc5f1356b592bb1d99a8061ddbabe66","0x2bf8151e5f157dd183b9de6fa00469551932a7a6e3f33a694895000ac9061197","0x9fc354c0ea3efc3f1b6548bb77ea902a50f2c9647647ea61592efce2bd795699"]}