{"id":291327,"recorded_at":"2026-10-26T20:53:25.328120Z","observed_at":"2026-10-26T20:53:25.328001Z","subject_kind":"endpoint","subject":"e11c75b7-735e-4033-b3d1-7e8888c6859a","kind":"mcp.tools","method":"probe.mcp/1","body":{"count":108,"tools":[{"description":"Record a new position in a thesis for tracking. Use after an intent fills or a manual trade.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key. 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Agent can speed up monitoring during high volatility or slow down to save budget.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key. 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The local runtime daemon evaluates triggers and executes via user's Kalshi/Polymarket keys.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"action":{"description":"Trade action","enum":["buy","sell"],"type":"string"},"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key. Get one at https://simplefunctions.dev/dashboard/keys","type":"string"},"autoExecute":{"default":false,"description":"Auto-execute without later human confirmation. Defaults to false unless explicitly set true.","type":"boolean"},"direction":{"description":"Contract direction","enum":["yes","no"],"type":"string"},"expireAt":{"description":"ISO timestamp when intent expires (default: +24h)","type":"string"},"marketId":{"description":"Market ticker (e.g. KXFEDDEC-25DEC31-T100)","type":"string"},"marketTitle":{"description":"Human-readable market name","type":"string"},"maxPrice":{"description":"Max price per contract in cents (1-99). 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The heartbeat engine checks conditions every 15 min and executes when met.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key. 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Pass a slug to get details, or omit to list all.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"slug":{"description":"Specific thesis slug, or empty to list all","type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"name":"explore_public"},{"description":"Browse public theses (alias of explore_public). Pass slug to get one, omit to list.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"slug":{"description":"Thesis slug, or empty to list","type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"name":"explore_theses"},{"description":"Fork a public skill into your collection. No slug needed — just the skill ID.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key. 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Use when an agent is lost or needs onboarding.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"intent":{"description":"Workflow intent","enum":["query","monitor","integrate"],"type":"string"},"q":{"description":"Specific question to scope the guide","type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"name":"get_agent_guide"},{"description":"Pre-computed answer card for a probability question (the same data that powers /answer/{slug}). Returns probability, confidence, and citations.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"slug":{"description":"Answer slug (e.g. will-the-fed-cut-rates-in-december)","type":"string"}},"required":["slug"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_answer"},{"description":"Advanced: Kalshi account balance and portfolio value.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key. 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Returns date, topic, and linked tickers.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"category":{"description":"Category filter (econ, election, sports, geo)","type":"string"},"days":{"description":"Lookahead days (default 30)","type":"number"}},"type":"object"},"name":"get_calendar"},{"description":"SimpleFunctions calibration: Brier scores, hit rates by edge bucket, category breakdown, drift alerts. Measured against resolved/settled markets.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"category":{"description":"Topic filter (fed, elections, ai, crypto, sports, ...)","type":"string"},"period":{"description":"Period (30d, 90d, all)","type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"name":"get_calibration"},{"description":"Market change events since a timestamp: new contracts, price moves, removed contracts. Used by the live feed and agent context refreshers.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"q":{"description":"Keyword filter","type":"string"},"since":{"description":"ISO timestamp lower bound","type":"string"},"type":{"description":"Change type","enum":["new_contract","price_move","removed_contract"],"type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"name":"get_changes"},{"description":"Per-thesis change delta since a timestamp — what evolved on this thesis (signals consumed, edges updated, confidence moves).","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key","type":"string"},"since":{"description":"ISO timestamp lower bound","type":"string"},"thesisId":{"description":"Thesis ID","type":"string"}},"required":["thesisId","apiKey"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_changes_delta"},{"description":"Get a single Congress member by bioguide ID.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"id":{"description":"Bioguide ID","type":"string"}},"required":["id"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_congress_member"},{"description":"Connected-market signals: contracts that historically co-move with the input topic but have diverged in the current window. Surfaces \"this market should have moved but didn't\" trades.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"topic":{"description":"Topic keyword (fed, election, ai)","type":"string"},"window":{"description":"Lookback (e.g. 24h, 7d)","type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"name":"get_contagion"},{"description":"START HERE. Global market snapshot: top edges (mispriced contracts), price movers, highlights, traditional markets — live exchange data updated every 15 min. With thesisId + apiKey: thesis-specific context including causal tree, edges with orderbook depth, evaluation history, and track record. Global context is free-tier and rate-limited; API keys unlock higher limits.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key. Required only for thesis-specific context. Get one at https://simplefunctions.dev/dashboard/keys or run: sf login","type":"string"},"thesisId":{"description":"Thesis ID. Omit for global market snapshot on the free tier.","type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"name":"get_context"},{"description":"Macro/economic anchors from FRED: latest values, percentile vs history, crosswalk to relevant prediction markets. For grounding macro theses.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"category":{"description":"Category (rates, inflation, employment, growth)","type":"string"},"series":{"description":"FRED series ID (e.g. CPIAUCSL)","type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"name":"get_economic_anchors"},{"description":"Top mispriced markets across all theses, ranked by edge size. Shows where your model disagrees with the market. No auth = public thesis edges. Auth = private + public.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key. Omit for public edges only.","type":"string"},"limit":{"default":15,"description":"Max edges to return","type":"number"},"minEdge":{"default":3,"description":"Minimum edge in cents","type":"number"},"venue":{"description":"Filter: kalshi or polymarket","type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"name":"get_edges"},{"description":"Confidence trajectory over time — daily aggregated evaluations for a thesis. Use to analyze trends, detect convergence/divergence.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key. Get one at https://simplefunctions.dev/dashboard/keys","type":"string"},"thesisId":{"description":"Thesis ID","type":"string"}},"required":["thesisId","apiKey"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_evaluation_history"},{"description":"Cross-thesis evaluation feed: every evaluation across all your theses, ordered descending. Powers `sf feed` CLI.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key","type":"string"},"hours":{"description":"Lookback hours (default 24)","type":"number"},"limit":{"description":"Max rows","type":"number"}},"required":["apiKey"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_feed"},{"description":"Advanced: Recent trade fills on Kalshi.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key. Get one at https://simplefunctions.dev/dashboard/keys","type":"string"},"ticker":{"description":"Filter by market ticker","type":"string"}},"required":["apiKey"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_fills"},{"description":"Advanced: P50/P75/P90 percentile distribution for a Kalshi event — shows how market consensus shifted over time.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key (needed for authenticated Kalshi calls). Get one at https://simplefunctions.dev/dashboard/keys","type":"string"},"days":{"default":7,"description":"Days of history (default 7)","type":"number"},"eventTicker":{"description":"Kalshi event ticker (e.g. KXWTIMAX-26DEC31)","type":"string"}},"required":["eventTicker","apiKey"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_forecast"},{"description":"Get a single glossary term with full definition and links.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"slug":{"description":"Glossary slug","type":"string"}},"required":["slug"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_glossary_term"},{"description":"Get heartbeat config + monthly cost summary for a thesis (alias of get_heartbeat_status).","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key","type":"string"},"thesisId":{"description":"Thesis ID","type":"string"}},"required":["thesisId","apiKey"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_heartbeat_config"},{"description":"Get heartbeat config + this month's cost summary for a thesis. See news/X scan intervals, model tier, budget usage.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key. Get one at https://simplefunctions.dev/dashboard/keys","type":"string"},"thesisId":{"description":"Thesis ID","type":"string"}},"required":["thesisId","apiKey"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_heartbeat_status"},{"description":"Editorial highlights for the day: top movers, divergences, fresh contagion, freshly-resolved markets. Curated summary view.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{},"type":"object"},"name":"get_highlights"},{"description":"Historical SimpleFunctions Index snapshots. Pre-computed every 15 minutes, stored since v2 launch (2026-04-09). For charting trends.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"days":{"description":"Lookback days (default 7)","type":"number"}},"type":"object"},"name":"get_index_history"},{"description":"Get bill detail with prediction-market cross-reference (alias of legislation).","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"billId":{"description":"Bill ID, e.g. \"119-hr-22\"","type":"string"}},"required":["billId"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_legislation"},{"description":"Get full detail for a single market: price, volume, indicators, regime label, history pointer, cross-venue counterpart. Lower-level than inspect_ticker — raw JSON only.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"depth":{"description":"Orderbook depth levels to include (0 = none)","type":"number"},"ticker":{"description":"Market ticker","type":"string"}},"required":["ticker"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_market_detail"},{"description":"Diff a market vs the prior window: price delta, volume delta, indicator drift. For \"what changed in the last 6h?\" questions.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"sort":{"description":"Sort field (e.g. priceDelta)","type":"string"},"tickers":{"description":"Comma-separated tickers","type":"string"},"topic":{"description":"Topic keyword if no tickers","type":"string"},"window":{"description":"Lookback (default 24h)","type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"name":"get_market_diff"},{"description":"Get rolling 7-day price + indicator history for a single market. For trajectory questions and chart rendering.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"ticker":{"description":"Market ticker","type":"string"}},"required":["ticker"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_market_history"},{"description":"SimpleFunctions Prediction Market Index v2. Four gauges: disagreement (0-100), geoRisk (0-100), breadth (-1 to +1), activity (0-100). Updated every 15 minutes.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{},"type":"object"},"name":"get_market_index"},{"description":"Per-ticker microstructure time series: implicit yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround, plus realised volatility. Used for charting indicator drift.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"days":{"description":"Lookback days (default 7)","type":"number"},"interval":{"description":"Bucketing","enum":["hour","day"],"type":"string"},"ticker":{"description":"Market ticker","type":"string"}},"required":["ticker"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_market_microstructure_history"},{"description":"Get traditional market prices via Databento. Default: SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, USO. Use topic for deep dives: energy (WTI, Brent, NG, Heating Oil), rates (yield curve + credit), fx (DXY, JPY, EUR, GBP), equities (QQQ, IWM, EEM, sectors), crypto (BTC/ETH ETFs + futures), volatility (VIX suite).","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"topic":{"description":"Deep dive topic: energy, rates, fx, equities, crypto, volatility. Omit for core 5.","type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"name":"get_markets"},{"description":"Get upcoming events from Kalshi calendar (economic releases, political events, catalysts). Free-tier and rate-limited.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"category":{"description":"Filter by category (e.g. Economics, Politics, Sports)","type":"string"},"hours":{"default":168,"description":"Hours ahead to look (default 168 = 1 week)","type":"number"}},"type":"object"},"name":"get_milestones"},{"description":"Recently-listed markets (new contracts) on Kalshi and Polymarket. For finding fresh trading opportunities.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"hours":{"description":"Lookback hours (default 24)","type":"number"},"limit":{"description":"Max rows","type":"number"},"minLiquidity":{"description":"Minimum liquidity threshold","type":"number"},"venue":{"description":"kalshi or polymarket","type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"name":"get_newmarkets"},{"description":"Get a single opinion/essay by slug.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"slug":{"description":"Opinion slug","type":"string"}},"required":["slug"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_opinion"},{"description":"Advanced: Current resting orders on Kalshi.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key. Get one at https://simplefunctions.dev/dashboard/keys","type":"string"},"status":{"default":"resting","description":"Filter by status: resting, canceled, executed. Default: resting","type":"string"}},"required":["apiKey"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_orders"},{"description":"Advanced: Open Kalshi positions with live P&L. Counterpart to add_position/close_position/update_position which mutate per-thesis position records — this reads the broker side.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key. Requires Kalshi credentials configured via sf setup.","type":"string"}},"required":["apiKey"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_positions"},{"description":"Get a single published skill by slug.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"slug":{"description":"Public skill slug","type":"string"}},"required":["slug"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_public_skill"},{"description":"Scan markets by regime label (bull, bear, range, frontier, panic) with optional indicator filters. For regime-based screening.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"eventType":{"description":"binary, scalar, ladder","type":"string"},"hasEdge":{"description":"Filter to markets with non-trivial SimpleFunctions edge","type":"boolean"},"label":{"description":"Regime label filter","type":"string"},"limit":{"description":"Max rows (default 50)","type":"number"},"order":{"description":"Sort order","enum":["asc","desc"],"type":"string"},"sort":{"description":"Sort field (e.g. as, score)","type":"string"},"venue":{"description":"kalshi or polymarket","type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"name":"get_regime_scan"},{"description":"Get exchange status and trading hours","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{},"type":"object"},"name":"get_schedule"},{"description":"Advanced: Settled contracts with realized P&L.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key. Get one at https://simplefunctions.dev/dashboard/keys","type":"string"},"ticker":{"description":"Filter by market ticker","type":"string"}},"required":["apiKey"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_settlements"},{"description":"List authenticated user's skills. (Public skills are at browse_public_skills.)","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key","type":"string"}},"required":["apiKey"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_skills"},{"description":"Get a single technical reference doc by slug.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"slug":{"description":"Technical doc slug","type":"string"}},"required":["slug"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_technical"},{"description":"Auth-only thesis context: causal tree, edges with orderbook depth, evaluation history, and track record. Use get_context with no thesisId for the global market snapshot.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"apiKey":{"description":"SimpleFunctions API key","type":"string"},"thesisId":{"description":"Thesis ID","type":"string"}},"required":["thesisId","apiKey"],"type":"object"},"name":"get_thesis_context"},{"description":"S&T-style trade recommendations: actionable pitches synthesized from live market data, edges, and macro context. Each idea has conviction level, catalyst timing, direction, and risk. Free-tier and rate-limited. START HERE when looking for what to trade.","inputSchema":{"$schema":"http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#","properties":{"category":{"description":"Filter: macro, geopolitics, crypto, policy, event","type":"string"},"freshness":{"default":"12h","description":"Max cache age: 1h, 6h, 12h, 1d","type":"string"},"limit":{"default":5,"description":"Max ideas (1-10)","type":"number"}},"type":"object"},"name":"get_trade_ideas"},{"description":"Incremental world state update — only what changed since a timestamp. ~30-50 tokens vs 800 for full state. 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